Pitches, Balls and Back-ups β Where the Ashes Will Be Decided
Two days remaining.
England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.
Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.
Itβs challenging to make runs, isn't it?
Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.
Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".
Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.
There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.
Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.
Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.
A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.
Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about problem solving.
When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.
Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.
What's going on with the Australia seamers?
On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.
Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.
Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.
From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.
Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.
When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.
Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.
Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.
The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.
The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.
In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected β The tourists should take heed.
Tough at the top
Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.
Not anymore.
Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.
Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.
The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.
His batting average increases when the pace increases.
By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.
After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.
Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.
It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.
Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.
In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.
Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Spin war
Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior β spin bowling.
Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.
Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.
It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.
During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.
Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.
Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?
It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.
Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.
Favorable Conditions?
The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.
The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.
Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.
England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.
Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.
This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.
The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca β scene of many an England humbling β but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.
The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.
The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.
Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.
In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.
The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match β against India last year.
Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.
England often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
