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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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